Executive Summary
At the end of each quarter of the calendar year, ARtillery Intelligence’s monthly report for its Pro subscribers takes form in an expansive market forecast. These four annual deliverables cover various subsegments of the “spatial spectrum,” including mobile AR, Headworn AR, VR, and cumulative XR. But given the velocity of some of these spatial sub sectors, we often return to these sectors mid-cycle to update and analyze the revenue outlook.
That is what we intend to do in this report. Specifically, we are revisiting the headworn AR segment of spatial computing that we last tackled in June. This includes AR glasses, smart glasses and their variants (see definitions and inclusions later in this section). Given recent moves from Meta, and anticipated moves in the near term from other influential players, there’s much to examine.
But rather than just re-publish our June forecast with updated numbers (which we also did), we want to go deeper. In other words, we’re layering in more dimension to projected revenue figures. Because there are myriad potential outcomes and contingent factors that impact the AR glasses market (cultural adoption, underlying capabilities, marketing execution, etc.), we have gamed out a few scenarios.
These scenarios take form in conservative, moderate, and optimistic projections, which define the structure of this report. Each of these sections provides not only projected figures but the context and drivers behind them. In other words, what market conditions will need to be in place for figures to be realized?
To further contextualize our intentions, the 3-track approach isn’t meant to be non-committal to a single market outlook, nor to hedge our bets. It’s rather to bring more depth and dimension to the forecasting process, and thus its strategic takeaways. The process itself uncovered several contingent factors that could sway the headworn AR market by billions of dollars.
Discovering, acknowledging, and anticipating those factors is strategically advantageous for XR players that are planning their own road maps, and gaming out market outcomes. As they say, success is a combination of luck and preparedness. This report hopes to inspire and engender the latter.
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MethodologyARtillery Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 20 years in research and intelligence in tech sectors. This includes the past 10 years covering AR & VR as a primary focus.
This report focuses on revenue projections in various sub-sectors and product areas. ARtillery Intelligence has built financial models that are customized to the specific dynamics and unit economics of each. These include variables like unit sales, company revenues, pricing trends, market trajectory, and several other micro and macro factors that ARtillery Intelligence tracks.
This approach primarily applies a bottom-up forecasting methodology, which is secondarily vetted against a top-down analysis. Together, confidence is achieved through triangulating revenues and projections in a disciplined way. More about ARtillery Intelligence’s market-sizing methodology can be seen here and more on its credentials can be seen here.
Disclosure & Ethics StatementUnless specified in its stock ownership disclosures, ARtillery Intelligence has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in its reports. The production of this report likewise wasn’t commissioned. With all market sizing, ARtillery Intelligence remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections. ARtillery Intelligence’s disclosures, stock ownership, and ethics policy can be seen in full here.
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