For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
Michael (ARtillery Intelligence) is a well-versed industry expert on AR and VR, and has authored multiple thought leadership pieces in the industry. Mike’s also been a knowledgeable speaker at a variety of conferences. I would recommend Mike for any kind of business strategy-related activity.
Kristi Cu
Strategy & Product, Building 8 / Facebook
Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] is, hands down, one of the best industry analysts I have ever worked with in my career. Mike provided great counsel to my company, Invoca, as we renamed/rebranded the company and announced Series C funding… I wish I could clone him.
Brett Smith
Communications Manager / Prezi
For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
Reynaldo Zabala
XR Strategy Director / RazorEdge
As growth capital investors, we’re accustomed to completing thorough market diligence and speaking with many industry analysts and experts. Mike Boland [ARtillery Intelligence] is top-tier in terms of aptitude for digital transformation and, equally important, translating that into value creation and opportunity spotting.
Mike McClure
Principle / Sageview Capital
ARtillery Intelligence and Mike Boland have deep insights and data-backed narratives for XR’s impact. They’re a useful and valuable resource for anyone vetting business opportunities in these emerging fields.
Prem Nagarathnam
Global Strategist / Samsung
I couldn’t be more fortunate than to get to work with Mike and ARtillery Intelligence on a daily basis to build the VRARA’s SF operations. His background as a journalist and analyst help him synthesize the deluge of information coming to us in the VR/AR industries, and to find the salient points upon which to focus. He makes running events look easy, and that’s because of the tremendous amount of legwork that he does leading up to them to make sure they go off without a hitch.
Emily Olman
CEO & Co-founder / Spatial First
People in the industry look to Michael Boland and ARtillery Intelligence as the leading source of emerging trends, industry shift and innovation. Michael Boland is an industry term, as it’s not just his name anymore. He’s an excellent public speaker and company representative as I’ve had the pleasure of watching Mike build his impeccable reputation dramatically over the last decade. Mike is a leader in strategy, product, operations and innovation and would be a key asset to growing any company he consults with or works for. He has the Midas touch, as every project he’s worked on turns to gold, I’ve witnessed this at both BIA Kelsey and The VR/AR Association.
Kelly Benish
VP, Business Development / Navads
I have known Mike for over 10 years. He is one of those analysts who really “gets it.” He and ARtillery Intelligence have a good track record of spotting trends and writing/speaking about the technologies that will have the most impact on our lives and wallets.
Ron Braunfeld
VP, Business Development / Pingup
I’ve seen Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] on stage many times and he’s one of the best presenters I’ve ever seen
Michele Chaboudy
President / Macabbey & Associates
There are so many people in this space that covet their ideas, and this is what cripples our space. Mike and ARtillery Intelligence have for years always been a driving force behind identifying emerging trends and sharing them with the world by either writing about it in one of his many publications, or standing on stage and delivering it at conferences.
Walt Geer
Creative Director / Verve Mobile
Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] is a triple threat: analyst, writer and public speaker. As an analyst, Mike not only knows how to identify and follow emerging trends, he knows how to share them in a way that’s digestible. On stage, Mike is confident, charming and informative. When writing, Mike is thorough, fair and precise. Mike makes analysis look easy because he puts the rigor necessary into being a thought leader.
Stacey Sedbrook
VP, Sales / Denver Business Journal
Michael [ARtillery Intelligence] is a smart analyst that has in-depth understanding of technology and the changes they are driving in the marketplace… His data-driven presentations and articles are always insightful to understand the customer needs and future direction.
RadhaKrishna Hiremane
Head of Data Platform and Integration / Boeing AnalytX
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For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
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ARtillery Intelligence publishes several reports based on original market-sizing and revenue projections. Beyond monthly narrative reports that draw upon that data, we publish extensive data-centric reports. In all cases, key questions are how do we come up with these figures? and What’s included?
It’s important to specify this because there’s such variance across industry projections due to differences in methodology, and what’s being tracked. In a world where industry watchers get a reputation for “calling it in,” it’s important to disclose methodologies to demonstrate diligence in market sizing.
From the Bottom Up
It’s all about grounded calculations.
ARtillery Intelligence follows disciplined best practices in market sizing and forecasting, developed and reinforced through its principles’ 15 years in research and intelligence in the tech sector. This includes the past four years covering spatial computing as a main focus. Each market-sizing or forecasting deliverable is different in its composition and inclusions, which are specified in each case (example). Generally speaking, Artillery Intelligence primarily applies the bottom-up approach, while then using the top-down method as a “gut-check.”
Bottom-Up (primary)
The bottom-up forecasting methodology requires building financial models that reflect the dynamics and unit economics of sectors being measured. This includes variables like unit sales, pricing trends, individual company performances, and several other micro factors that ARtillery Intelligence tracks. Because there are often sub-sectors that comprise an overall industry (e.g. enterprise and consumer AR), the bottom-up method requires unique models for each segment that reflects its unique unit economics and revenue drivers.
Top-Down (secondary)
The top-down methodology takes a more macro approach. It looks at influential market factors that inform industry revenue growth and trajectory. This can include aggregate sales, comparable/historic industry growth rates and other macro factors, such as share of GDP. This approach is useful to validate, challenge and/or gain additional levels of confidence after executing the bottom-up approach. Generally, that is our order of operations.
Together, confidence is achieved by triangulating market size in a disciplined way. It all comes together in a forecast model with several spreadsheet tabs and thousands of active cells. More about ARtillery Intelligence principles’ market-sizing history and credentials can be seen here.
What’s Included?
Revenue inclusions sway the outcome.
One of the biggest factors that impacts a given forecast’s final numbers is what revenue sources are included. Some firms include things that others don’t, which can sway the outcome by billions of dollars.
For instance, some firms count the transaction value of products bought through AR-interfaces as “AR revenue.” This would be the $2000 you pay for a couch bought using the IKEA Place app to visualize the item in your living room. We don’t count this as AR revenue, but we do count software elsewhere in the value chain, such as AR experience creation; or revenues for startups that enable AR commerce. That can take form in licensing, SaaS or affiliate commerce revenue.
Decisions like these that analyst firms make about what to include (or not include) are perfectly okay. We respect those decisions, as long as they’re specified clearly. Firms engaged in XR market sizing mostly do a good job communicating this. For you, knowing what a given forecast includes should be considered before taking strategic guidance away from it.
With that backdrop, our responsibility to you is to clearly specify everything that is included in our market-sizing reports. This is done as a matter of protocol for every forecast we produce. An example is below from a recent forecast, and we’re open to additional questions.
The Sudoku Analogy
Triangulating unknown quantities
One ongoing challenge in market sizing is data availability. It’s all about piecing together clues to extrapolate things like unit sales and revenues. In mature markets like smartphones, hardware players disclose figures — especially if publicly traded — but it’s a lot quieter on the early-stage front.
That’s the case with VR for example, which becomes an exercise in gathering hints in perpetual market-sizing mode. Sometimes there are exceptions like Sony’s disclosures for PSVR sales. Otherwise, it requires detective work to find reliable inputs for the financial models outlined above.
We often compare this to a Sudoku board. It’s similarly about logically devising unknown quantities using known ones. For example, along with primary research and insider discussions, things like hardware sales can be extrapolated using announced software sales in tandem with pricing and ARPU data. Here’s an example…
The Sudoku approach isn’t a panacea, but rather a method pulled from a larger toolbox. In fact, having several approaches can stress-test and gut-check a financial model. It’s about coming at it from many different angles to gain validation and levels of confidence.
Another analogy this brings to mind is our days (many years ago) in high-school AP calculus. It was the ultimate form of validation to apply different methods that arrive at the same solution. It works even better with multiple double-blind participants. We live by this principle.
The other lesson from those days is to show your work… getting back to the principles above about well-communicated methodologies and inclusions. On that note, though our financial model is highly proprietary, we’re always eager to invoke sections to show our work.
Another question that follows the Sudoku analogy is how do we get our hands on the known quantities to even begin the exercise. The answer is lots of time and rigor. There are clues all around us in industry happenings, which we spend several hours per day collecting and talking to industry insiders.
The factor that propels this is our sister publication AR Insider. As former journalists, we’ve become conditioned to the cadence of daily reporting and publishing. As industry analysts, we’ve since learned that this is also the ultimate way to achieve deep knowledge and retention of any topic.
Moreover, the discipline of daily publishing exposes one to an immense amount of information, while press credentials provide deeper access. Our focused attention on industry happenings is then retained through the practice of indexing knowledge and data through taxonomies such as Evernote.
Then, when sitting down for the intensive forecasting process, that indexed base of tagged and filtered data starts us off with a wealth of inputs for our financial model. These are the known quantities of the Sudoku board, ensuring that we start the endeavor with a firm foundation.
Speaking of a firm foundation, our biggest priority when calculating market sizes is confidence and structural integrity in base-year figures. The elephant in the room with forecasting is that outer-year projections mostly rely on educated assumptions, revenue momentum, and historical patterns.
But the base year figures have no excuses. They must be accurate, well-backed and fire-tested. The best chance of ensuring accuracy and validity in building out future-year projections is to do so from a strong foundation of current and past-year precision. That is our foundational principle.
ARtillery Intelligence has no financial stake in the companies mentioned in its reports, unless specified in footnotes and endnotes. With respect to market sizing, ARtillery remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections. Disclosure and ethics policy can be seen in full here.
Protocols and Parameters for requesting time with us.
This page outlines ARtillery’s Intelligence’s policies and protocols around analyst calls and discovery meetings. After reviewing, please use the form below to request a call or meeting.
Requests for meetings or briefings should contain the following
What type of briefing you’re interested in (detailed below)
Acknowledgment of briefings policies
Requested/desired time slot
1. Types of Briefings:
A. On-the-record for publication (AR Insider):
This is generally for the purposes of profiling or publishing an article about your company. AR Insider (ARtillery Intelligence’s sister publication) benefits from adding to its market coverage and content library with thoughtful analysis of industry players and the innovations they exhibit (examples here). We also appreciate and thrive on relationship-building with industry innovators. Meanwhile, subjects can benefit from exposure, though AR Insider maintains analyst and authorial license for all published material. Importantly, these are not PR pieces and no money changes hands for such engagements. See AR Insider’s Disclosure and Ethics Policy.
These briefings aren’t meant for publication or public analysis but are rather done for the purposes of strategic insights. These briefings are common for startups in AR & VR sectors, or companies entering from other sectors that wish to be educated on the key trends and success factors that ARtillery Intelligence is tracking. There is a fee for these briefings, which is detailed here. This is waived for ARtillery PRO subscribers (“Startup” and “Enterprise” tiers) as strategy briefings are included. Contact us to find out more.
These may or may not have a specific agenda or outcome. They are generally to network or discover synergies. These are valuable to ARtillery Intelligence, but limited in availability and volume, given prioritization of the above engagements and editorial output.
2. Briefings Policy
ARtillery Intelligence’s briefings policies stem from Paul Graham’s “Makers and Managers” construct, and is summarized below. This does not apply to paid strategy briefings nor ARtillery PRO subscribers, who can log in and contact us for immediate response.
ARtillery analysts are in a unique position in running a publishing-centric intelligence firm. Our small team publishes roughly 25,000 words per month, the equivalent of a 100-page novel. This involves reporting, fact-checking, copy editing, and other protocols for editorial standards.
This type of work is unique in that it requires deep focus and long periods of uninterrupted “heads down” time. Like coding/programming, things like research papers can’t be done in 30-minute chunks, due to the headspace and cognitive momentum required to do them effectively.
Therefore, the corporate paradigm of frequent calls and meetings (e.g. “discovery calls”) can be significantly disruptive to a publishing schedule. A meeting at 10 AM disables production for an entire morning, splitting it into two parts, each inadequate for productive focus.
At the same time, we receive several daily requests and offers to “grab coffee,” which we are honored and flattered to receive. We recognize that this is the common corporate paradigm and culture with which we interact, coexist and strongly value. But altogether, it creates a challenge.
We’ve devised three solutions
Limit meetings to calls*: Though preferable in lots of ways, in-person meetings can eat up three hours, including prep, transit, the meeting itself, follow-ups, and a cascading effect on the remainder of the day. They also tend to linger and last longer than calls. We are compatible/accustomed to any video calling platform.
Limit calls to 30 minutes*: A 15-30 minute limit, when communicated in advance, can force a focused information exchange that covers all critical bases, but in a more time-efficient way.
Dayparting*: The challenge isn’t just elapsed time, but the sequencing of activities. A day with 3-4 scheduled calls can coexist with productive publishing output… if they are strategically clustered in designated dayparts, rather than peppered through the day in disruptive ways. This is what Paul Graham calls “office hours.”
We’re often asked to sign NDA’s before engaging in analyst briefings. We honor this request for paid strategy briefings or ARtillery PRO subscribers. If you’d like to request our time otherwise for discovery meetings (explained above) or other call formats, we’re unable to process NDA’s due to the time and legal review process that has proven to be substantial and counterproductive to the above bandwidth issues. We do however operate under the Society of Professional Journalist Code of Ethics (detailed in our disclosure and ethics policy) and are ethically and strategically bound to not publicly disclose any information that is explicitly stated as “off the record” prior to its exchange.
Travel
We’re often asked to travel to attend or speak at conferences, usually comp’d under a press/media or speaker pass. We are honored to receive these offers but are often time and resource-constrained due to the aggressive editorial cycles outlined above. Fortunately, we are based in San Francisco where the event “itch” is often scratched through lots of local activity. So dedicated air travel to attend events is rare, unless there are compelling circumstances such as a travel cost reimbursement or other direct revenue outcomes that not only offset trip costs but also the “opportunity cost” of being pulled away from editorial cycles and building a startup. We look forward to our next stage of growth when we can get out more, but this is the current reality and the discipline we’re committed to.
3. Scheduling
Based on all of the above, the available time slots for 15-30 minute calls with ARtillery Intelligence analysts are 10am-12 PST, Tuesday – Thursday. Please indicate desired times when requesting a briefing below. Paid strategy briefings and ARtillery PRO subscribers can log in anytime to access a wider range of time slots.
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ARtillery Intelligence operates under the Society of Professional Journalists Code of Ethics. All material and commentary are published with the professional standards and tactics of journalistic reporting. Adherence to such standards is grounded in and reinforced by foundations in journalism. All ARtillery Intelligence published material is meant to educate and inform: It does not result from paid placement, nor influence from subjects.
In rare cases of sponsored posts, vested interest or anything that results from money changing hands, financial relationship is disclosed clearly. This includes ARtillery Intelligence’s sister publication, AR Insider and its narrative reports. Similarly with market sizing, ARtillery Intelligence remains independent of players and practitioners in the sectors it covers, thus mitigating bias in industry revenue calculations and projections.
In addition to stock owned passively through mutual funds and ETFs, the operators of AR Insider have, as of this writing, ownership in the following stocks within the publication’s AR coverage universe (list will update over time): FB, SNAP, AAPL, NVDA, RBLX, U, QCOM, PTC, NEXCF.
ARtillery Intelligence’s Privacy Policy can be seen here.
ARtillery Intelligence chronicles the evolution of augmented reality and virtual reality, otherwise known as spatial computing. Through writings and multimedia, it provides deep and analytical views into the industry’s biggest players, opportunities and strategies. It’s about insights, not cheerleading. Run by analysts and former journalists, coverage is grounded in a disciplined and journalistic approach. It also maintains a business angle: Though there are lots of fun and games in augmented and virtual reality, long-term cultural, technological and financial implications are primary.
For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
Reynaldo Zabala
XR Strategy Director / RazorEdge
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Michael (ARtillery Intelligence) is a well-versed industry expert on AR and VR, and has authored multiple thought leadership pieces in the industry. Mike’s also been a knowledgeable speaker at a variety of conferences. I would recommend Mike for any kind of business strategy-related activity.
Kristi Cu
Strategy & Product, Building 8 / Facebook
Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] is, hands down, one of the best industry analysts I have ever worked with in my career. Mike provided great counsel to my company, Invoca, as we renamed/rebranded the company and announced Series C funding… I wish I could clone him.
Brett Smith
Communications Manager / Prezi
For those working in #XR and others looking to educate yourselves on this industry ditch the Wave reports and Hype Cycles and opt for a specialist industry analyst firm. Michael Boland’s team at ARtillery Intelligence delivers original, relevant and well prepped/delivered insights and data analytics on the market trends that matter across the extended reality ecosystem.
Reynaldo Zabala
XR Strategy Director / RazorEdge
As growth capital investors, we’re accustomed to completing thorough market diligence and speaking with many industry analysts and experts. Mike Boland [ARtillery Intelligence] is top-tier in terms of aptitude for digital transformation and, equally important, translating that into value creation and opportunity spotting.
Mike McClure
Principle / Sageview Capital
ARtillery Intelligence and Mike Boland have deep insights and data-backed narratives for XR’s impact. They’re a useful and valuable resource for anyone vetting business opportunities in these emerging fields.
Prem Nagarathnam
Global Strategist / Samsung
I couldn’t be more fortunate than to get to work with Mike and ARtillery Intelligence on a daily basis to build the VRARA’s SF operations. His background as a journalist and analyst help him synthesize the deluge of information coming to us in the VR/AR industries, and to find the salient points upon which to focus. He makes running events look easy, and that’s because of the tremendous amount of legwork that he does leading up to them to make sure they go off without a hitch.
Emily Olman
CEO & Co-founder / Spatial First
People in the industry look to Michael Boland and ARtillery Intelligence as the leading source of emerging trends, industry shift and innovation. Michael Boland is an industry term, as it’s not just his name anymore. He’s an excellent public speaker and company representative as I’ve had the pleasure of watching Mike build his impeccable reputation dramatically over the last decade. Mike is a leader in strategy, product, operations and innovation and would be a key asset to growing any company he consults with or works for. He has the Midas touch, as every project he’s worked on turns to gold, I’ve witnessed this at both BIA Kelsey and The VR/AR Association.
Kelly Benish
VP, Business Development / Navads
I have known Mike for over 10 years. He is one of those analysts who really “gets it.” He and ARtillery Intelligence have a good track record of spotting trends and writing/speaking about the technologies that will have the most impact on our lives and wallets.
Ron Braunfeld
VP, Business Development / Pingup
I’ve seen Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] on stage many times and he’s one of the best presenters I’ve ever seen
Michele Chaboudy
President / Macabbey & Associates
There are so many people in this space that covet their ideas, and this is what cripples our space. Mike and ARtillery Intelligence have for years always been a driving force behind identifying emerging trends and sharing them with the world by either writing about it in one of his many publications, or standing on stage and delivering it at conferences.
Walt Geer
Creative Director / Verve Mobile
Mike [ARtillery Intelligence] is a triple threat: analyst, writer and public speaker. As an analyst, Mike not only knows how to identify and follow emerging trends, he knows how to share them in a way that’s digestible. On stage, Mike is confident, charming and informative. When writing, Mike is thorough, fair and precise. Mike makes analysis look easy because he puts the rigor necessary into being a thought leader.
Stacey Sedbrook
VP, Sales / Denver Business Journal
Michael [ARtillery Intelligence] is a smart analyst that has in-depth understanding of technology and the changes they are driving in the marketplace… His data-driven presentations and articles are always insightful to understand the customer needs and future direction.
RadhaKrishna Hiremane
Head of Data Platform and Integration / Boeing AnalytX
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